Primary education and fertility rates

Unified growth theory advances that the transition from a Malthusian regime to sustained economic growth is characterized by technological progress and, amongst other things, by an increase in demand for human capital which in turn creates incentives for lower fertility rates. Bearing that in mind, I ask the question: has southern Africa escaped the Malthusian stagnation? Specifically, I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in all countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results, based on dynamic panel time‐series methods, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC, or that the community is already trading‐off quantity for quality of children. Although I do not claim causality, overall the results are significant because, in accordance with unified growth theory, they suggest that the SADC is experiencing its own transition from the Malthusian stagnation epoch into sustained growth, or that the SADC is going through its own post‐Malthusian regime.     

Income inequality and education revisited: persistence,endogeneity and heterogeneity

This article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion – that is, increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues of persistence and endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant and stable relationship between inequality of schooling and income inequality, especially in emerging and developing economies and among older-age cohorts. The relationship between income inequality and average years of schooling is positive, consistent with constant or increasing returns to additional years of schooling. While this positive relationship is small and not always statistically significant, we find a statistically significant negative relationship with years of schooling of younger cohorts. Statistical tests indicate that our dynamic estimators are consistent and that our identifying instruments are valid. Policy simulations suggest that education expansion will continue to be inequality reducing. This role will diminish as countries develop, but it could be enhanced through a stronger focus on reducing inequality in the quality of education.     

On the peer effects of star students

We estimate the effect that star students have on their siblings’ learning outcomes, measured by their high school grade point average (GPA) and their math grades. To this end, we couple administrative school data on grades with an unusual natural experiment in Peru that generates exogenous variation in the presence of star students at home. We find that star students increase their siblings’ GPA by 0.33 SDs and their math grades by 0.22 SDs. The effect size is inversely related to number of siblings, suggesting that the remaining siblings act as substitutes for the star student.     

CAUSAL INFERENCE ON EDUCATION POLICIES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES USING PISA,TIMSS AND PIRLS

The identification of the causal effects of educational policies is the top priority in recent education economics literature. As a result, a shift can be observed in the strategies of empirical studies. They have moved from the use of standard multivariate statistical methods, which identify correlations or associations between variables only, to more complex econometric strategies, which can help to identify causal relationships. However, exogenous variations in databases have to be identified in order to apply causal inference techniques. This is a far from straightforward task. For this reason, this paper provides an extensive and comprehensive overview of the literature using quasi‐experimental techniques applied to three well‐known international large‐scale comparative assessments, such as PISA, PIRLS or TIMSS, over the period 2004–2016. In particular, we review empirical studies employing instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, difference in differences and propensity score matching to the above databases. Additionally, we provide a detailed summary of estimation strategies, issues treated and profitability in terms of the quality of publications to encourage further potential evaluations. The paper concludes with some operational recommendations for prospective researchers in the field.     

改革开放40年持续性产业升级的动力机制与路径——广东迈向高质量发展之路

产业升级是高质量发展的主要目标及核心推力。通过分阶段观测广东改革开放40年产业转型升级进程发现，广东产业转型升级的演化轨迹是一条迈向高质量发展的产业跃升之路，贯穿其中的主线是持续性产业升级。生产要素供给、市场需求、技术创新、政府干预及制度安排等四大动因相互影响、相互作用，形成动态更迭比较优势、推动产业持续升级的耦合动力机制。在国际产业分工的背景下，适应不同的阶段特征及红利条件，通过比较优势的动态化调整，广东产业发展模式由低成本要素驱动、投资驱动向创新驱动转变。站在新时代的历史起点上，广东应以全面创新驱动作为产业转型升级的动力，加快数字经济与实体经济深度融合，抢占全球价值链高端，迈向一个更高质量的发展阶段。     

改革开放以来金融风险的本质特征及防控启示——兼论中国共产党领导下的防控金融风险探索与实践

改革开放以来，立足于"新兴+转轨"的基本经济特征，中国的金融风险既表现出转轨经济条件下特有的风险特征，又表现出新兴市场经济的典型风险特征。中国防范化解金融风险始终与自身经济增长、金融发展之间进行统筹兼顾，先后经历了社会主义市场经济培育探索、快速成长、加速开放以及高质量发展四个阶段。历史地看，各个阶段的防控实践留下重要启示：（1）坚守底线、理性务实的风险思维是防控金融风险的重要法宝；（2）维护中央金融集权主导与地方适当分权的辩证统一；（3）尊重实体经济以及金融业的客观发展规律，严防脱实向虚；（4）金融监管体系须在平衡金融创新与金融风险之间与时俱进；（5）坚持中国共产党的全面领导，不断推进马克思主义的中国化时代化，是实现上述四点的根本政治保障。     

非国有大股东对国企超额雇员的影响:成本效应还是激励效应

基于竞争理论的国企改革思路强调减少政策性负担摊派,基于产权理论的改革思路侧重于引入非国有资本,以解决产权不清晰与所有者缺位问题.本文尝试融合两种理论,以国企超额雇员问题为研究对象,从非国有大股东视角探究混合所有制改革成效.研究发现:非国有大股东能够显著降低国企超额雇员,减弱超额雇员对公司价值的损害作用,且该治理作用会随非国有大股东相对力量的提高而增强;从作用机制来看,该治理作用不仅表现为劳动力成本尤其是员工薪酬的节约,还表现为内部薪酬差距和管理层薪酬业绩敏感性的提高,兼具成本效应与激励效应;该作用在地区就业压力较小、劳动密集度较低以及劳动保护水平更低的环境下更为显著.     

国铁企业市场化经营机制建设探讨

建立市场化经营机制是深化铁路改革的重要方向,也是提升企业核心竞争力的迫切需要。在分析国铁企业市场化经营现状及面临问题的基础上,提出国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的总体思路,即理顺国铁企业与政府部门、国铁企业与市场、国铁集团与所属企业3个方面的关系,从进一步落实国铁企业市场主体地位、建立铁路公益性运输补贴机制、加强铁路基础设施网络建设、提升铁路运输服务质量和水平、推进铁路客货运价市场化改革、着力提升国铁资本运作能力、推进国铁资本授权经营体制改革、完善国铁现代企业制度建设等方面阐述国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的重点任务,为深化铁路改革提供参考。     

农民工教育与职业的匹配及其工资效应——基于城市规模视角

农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对提高劳动力资源利用、增加劳动供给质量具有重要意义。本文使用中国流动人口动态监测调查2011~2016年微观数据,基于城市规模视角分析了农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对工资效应的差别。研究发现:人口规模越大的城市,农民工教育与职业的错配比例越高;中小城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响呈现工资嘉赏效应,大城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响以工资惩罚为主;而教育不足对农民工工资则普遍存在负向影响。农民工教育与职业不匹配对工资影响的理论机制表明,中小城市支持人力资本理论模型,而大城市和特大城市则支持分配理论模型。这意味着,农民工在中小城市表现出学历越高人力资本回报越高的特点;而在大城市,教育与职业适配则更为重要。因此,改善城市层面的教育-职业的适配性,让农民工在城市劳动力市场上自由流动和工作转换,进一步增强城市间劳动力资源的流动是相关政策调节的重点。     

Is external research assessment associated with convergence or divergence of research quality across universities and disciplines? Evidence from the PBRF process in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Performance-based research evaluations have been adopted in several countries both to measure research quality in higher education institutions and as a basis for the allocation of funding across institutions. Much attention has been given to evaluating whether such schemes have increased the quality and quantity of research. This paper examines whether the introduction of the New Zealand Performance-Based Research Fund process produced convergence or divergence in measured research quality across universities and disciplines between the 2003 and 2012 assessments. Two convergence measures are obtained. One, referred to as β-convergence, relates to the relationship between changes in average quality and the initial quality level. The second concept, referred to as σ-convergence, relates to the changes in the dispersion in average research quality over time. Average quality scores by discipline and university were obtained from individual researcher data, revealing substantial β- and σ-convergence in research quality over the period. The hypothesis of uniform rates of convergence across almost all universities and disciplines is supported. The results provide insights into the incentives created by performance-based funding schemes.